''Statistically impossible'' to overtake ''Bongbong'', Sara: Defensor
After just two months into the national campaign period, UniTeam presidential bet former Sen. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and vice presidential candidate Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte have built a survey lead over their rivals that overtaking them is improbable, if not downright impossible.
"It is now statistically impossible to overtake Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte in time for the May 9 elections, which is just over a month away. This shows that the message of unity that has espoused by both Marcos and Duterte has truly stricken a chord with Filipinos," said Quezon City mayoralty candidate Mike Defensor of Anakalusugan party-list.
Defensor is the UniTeam's official mayoralty candidate in Quezon City.
Marcos, based on the latest Pulse Asia survey results, has a 32 percentage point lead over his closest rival, Vice President Leni Robredo (56 percent and 24 percent, respectively).
In the case of Duterte, she has 36-percentage point lead over Sen. Vicente Sotto III who settled in far second with 20 percent.
Defensor pointed to a comparative analysis of Pulse Asia presidential survey results in past elections beginning 2004 for roughly the same period (mid to end of March).
"There has never been a survey lead like that Marcos's in the past wherein one could say at this point, 'May nanalo na,'" Defensor said.
Figures show that in 2004, then-incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had a 3 -percentage point lead over Fernando Poe Jr. (34 percent and 31 percent, respectively) during this period.
In 2010, then-senator Benigno S. Aquino III had a 19-percentage point lead over former President Joseph Estrada (37 percent and 18 percent, respectively) at this time.
On the other hand, 11 percentage points separated the survey frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte from former senator Mar Roxas (30 percent and 19 percent, respectively) in 2016.
Historically, most survey frontrunners for the Palace seat up to this point even increased their lead over their rivals during the April survey period before going on to win in the actual polls, according to Defensor.
"In the subsequent April surveys, Macapagal-Arroyo's lead increased to 6 percent points, Aquino's to 19 percentage points, and Duterte maintained his 11-percentage point lead," Defensor, a former Cabinet official of the Arroyo administration, said.
"Based on this historical data, there is no stopping Marcos and Duterte from winning the May 9 elections," Defensor added. Lakas-CMD
