The Philippine government narrowed its growth target for 2024 and projected lower inflation despite the expected impact of El Nino.

In a joint statement following their meeting on Friday, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said as the "growth momentum is expected to continue for the rest of the year" the target for 2023 is maintained to 6 to 7 percent.

The "growth target for 2024 has been narrowed to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 8.0 percent, while retaining the 6.5 to 8.0 percent growth assumption for 2025 to 2028," it said.

Based on the revised microeconomic assumption, the inflation for 2024 despite the possible effect of El Nino is lowered to 2 to 4 percent from 6 percent in 2023. The 2 to 4 percent inflation will remain as the target for 2025 to 2028.

"The average inflation rate for 2023 is expected to settle at 6 percent. Following the monetary policy actions being undertaken by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the strategies being implemented by the Administration, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook, and consistent with macroeconomic developments and outlook, the inflation rate is expected to return to the target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent in 2024 until 2028," it stated.

The DBCC noted that the "projected growth for goods imports this year has been revised to -3.0 percent and is expected to increase to 7.0 percent in 2024."

"On the other hand, the growth of goods exports in 2023 was projected to be -4.0 percent before improving to 5.0 percent next year. For 2024, goods exports growth forecast is supported mainly by the upturn in demand for semiconductors, while goods imports are expected to be propped up by infrastructure investments and increased domestic production capacity," it stated

"Meanwhile, for 2025 to 2028, goods exports and imports growth rates are expected to return to their pre-pandemic levels of 6.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, reflecting the anticipated increase in demand and trade activities globally and domestically," it added. Robina Asido/DMS