The rate of increase of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) ''has been decreasing steadily'', said OCTA Research in a report on Saturday.

Based on the seven day moving average of new cases, OCTA said ''it has now decreased to three percent, from five percent a day before.''

If the trend is real, this projects to 16,000 to 18,000 in Saturday's daily COVID-19 case bulletin, OCTA Research Fellow Guido David said in the report. On Friday, NCR cases were 17, 081 while the national total was a record 37, 207.

''Once the daily growth rate becomes negative, new cases in the NCR are decreasing,'' said David.

The reproduction number in the NCR went down further to 3.22 as of January 11 from 3.777 on January 10.

''While the decrease in the growth rate is strong evidence that the trend in the NCR appears to be peaking, it is still subject to data backlog and late reports,'' said David. DMS