Department of Agriculture Assistant Secretary U-Nichols Manalo said the projection of the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) that the Philippine rice importation may reach 4.6 million metric tons for this year is "possible".

"They increase their (projection) because of the possible reduction of tariff. That is possible but we cannot yet see how big it is. As of now again, we are sticking to 2.2 million metric tons, as of June 13 latest import data," Manalo told reporters on Tuesday.

"As of the latest import data of rice at 2.2 million metric tons, (it is) about 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons higher compared to the same period last year, if were going to look at the whole importation. There is a possibility that it would increase especially if the effect of La Nina will get worse," he added.

Manalo refused to give DA's total import projection for 2024 but he noted that the outlook production for this year considering the possible effect of La Nina is 20.4 million metric tons ''or a little higher depending on the effect of La Nina".

"The target was 20.4 million MT (metric tons for palay), last year it was 20.06... the rice equivalent of that is 13.7 million MT," he said.

Manalo said based on their data, La Nina is much more destructive than El Nino.

"Historically speaking when it's the rainy season, there are storms that are about 500,000 to 600,000 MT losses on average due to flooding, for El Nino we also have 100,000 MT losses for the 1st quarter but I don't yet have the data for the 2nd quarter," he explained.

"They are expecting La Nina (around) late 4th quarter," he added.

In its Grain: World Markets and Trade report for June 2024, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects the Philippines to import 4.6 million metric tons from the previous forecast of 4.1 million metric tons.

Philippine rice imports for 2024 could reach 4.6 million metric tons due to the 15 percent tariff cuts approved by the government, United States Department of Agriculture report said.

USDA data shows that the projected trade changes on imports of rice for 2025 also rose to 4.7 million metric tons from 4.2 million metric tons due to "rising consumption with reduced tariffs." Robina Asido/DMS