By Robina Asido

As part of the effect of El Nino, some regions, including Metro Manila, may experience above normal rainfall '' starting June, July'', state weather bureau officials said on Wednesday.

"The first areas to experience above-normal rainfall are those in the western Luzon area, including CAR, Cagayan, Central Luzon, NCR, Calabarzon, Mimaropa and Bicol Region. That is our forecast starting June, July, near to above normal rainfall condition," Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Assistant Weather Services Chief Analisa Solis said during the ''Laging Handa'' public briefing.

"And then, on August, September, October the other part of our country like central Visayas, western Visayas, Zamboanga, Caraga, Dinagat Island and BARMM will gradually experience lack of rainfall," she added.

Solis said based on their forecast there are 10 to 14 tropical cyclones that are expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility from May to October.

In a radio interview, Pagasa Deputy Administrator for Research and development, Esperanza Cayanan said areas which will first experience the effect of El Nino are regions in the eastern side of the country.

Solis said the El Nino alert was announced on Tuesday because of the 70 percent possibility of experiencing El Nino within the next two to three months.

"Last March, we released El Nino Watch, which is the lowest level of our alert system. It meant there is 55 percent (of this happenng). So, now the possibility has increased that is why we declared an El Nino Alert," she said.

"For now, there is an 87 percent probability that it will become a weak El Nino, around 67 percent that it will be a moderate El Nino, and then 40 percent that it will be a strong El Nino. So, that is based on our recent monitoring," she added.

Cayanan said the water level in different dams in the country may still increase due to the above normal rainfall that may be experienced in the next two months.

"Because of the upcoming rainy season, if the water level in dams are going down it can be refill, so we still have hope to increase the water level in our dams, and I hope we will be able to conserve water this rainy season to slow down the decrease of water level towards next year,"she said. DMS