Conflict Climate Action, a conflict monitoring group, told The Daily Manila Shimbun that the Supreme Court decision upholding the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao but excluding Sulu could “significantly weaken” the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition.

The decision comes as the BARMM will hold its first election May 2025.

“As for the 2025 elections, the ruling may significantly weaken the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition?a key counterforce to the UBJP (United Bangsamoro Justice Party), giving the latter an opportunity to dominate the upcoming elections,” Conflict Climate Action Executive Director Francisco Lara, Jr. said.

“There may be realignment among candidates for both parliamentary and party list parties. But the end goal is to have a peaceful process and honor this ruling,” he added.

The Bangsamoro Grand Coalition is an alliance of four parties including the Salaam Party, the Bangsamoro People’s Party, Serbisyong Inklusibo-Alyansang Progresibo, and Al-Ittihad-Ungaya sa Kawagib nu Bangsamoro.

It is the largest alliance in BARMM and the main opposition to UBJ, which is the political arm of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) headed by BARMM Chief Minister Ahod Ebrahim.

In a separate statement, Lara said the exclusion of Sulu “does not diminish” the struggle for the Moro people’s self-determination.

“The Bangsamoro government, national agencies, and civil society must focus on measured and conflict-sensitive efforts to prevent the deepening of polarized views and ensure that the progress made in peace and stability is not undermined,'' said Lara.

''This is especially important given Sulu’s achievement in reversing violence and finding peace these last three years ? a hard-won triumph through years of effort and resilience by the peoples of Sulu,” Lara said.

In a statement released Tuesday, the Supreme Court said it will not include Sulu in BARMM because it had rejected the Bangsamoro Organic Law or Republic Act No. 11054, which created the BARMM as a political entity and its government structure and was enacted on July 27, 2018

The decision was issued by Justice Marivic Leonen and Justice Japar Dimaampao filed a separate concurring opinion.

“The majority of the ARMM ratified the law, except for Sulu. Despite this, Sulu was included in BARMM, prompting the province to file the present petition assailing the law,” the Supreme Court said.

“As Sulu rejected the Bangsamoro Organic Law in the plebiscite, it was wrong to include the province in BARMM,” the Supreme Court said. Jaspearl Tan/DMS