Failure of 2025 BARMM elections “not impossible”: group
A conflict monitoring group warned on Thursday of possible failure of the 2025 Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), expecting violent incidents to increase ahead of the polls.
In a press briefing, Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) Executive Director Francisco Lara said the failure of the first regional polls of BARMM was “not impossible”.
“It is a reality,” Lara said.
“The problem with the declaration of a failure of election whether in one particular municipality or just the barangay or the entire province is that it will lead to more violence. But some people’s agenda is actually to push towards a failure. That’s been the case, so it is not impossible,” he added.
Lara also said that the Supreme Court stopping the Commission on Elections (Comelec) from conducting three plebiscites in BARMM could help mitigate the violence in those areas.
“We think it will help contain the violence that they were expecting to happen during the plebiscite. Because the different interest groups are already squaring off,” he said.
According to a report by Conflict Alert, there has been an uptrend in violence since 2021 and it is expected to worsen as the first 2025 BARMM elections draw nearer.
The report said much of the collective violence in the region happened in Maguindanao due to “internal schisms and feuding” within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
“The data reveals that violence is rising fastest in the province where the new BARMM government sits and exercises regional authority. The old and undivided Maguindanao province, including Cotabato City, followed the ten-year conflict trend by registering the biggest number of violent incidents in the past three years, from 2021 to 2023. Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur recorded significant increases since 2021, which was repeated in 2023 together with Sulu,” the report said.
Based on the data, Maguindanao, including Cotabato City, had the highest number of incidents and deaths due to extremist violence across the provinces in 2023, with 48 incidents and 65 killed, respectively.
The highest number of deaths and incidents was in 2021, having 107 incidents and 77 deaths before it declined in 2022 and spiked again in 2023.
Meanwhile, Lanao del Sur had 25 incidents and 27 deaths in 2022 and sustained these numbers in the following year
“These cracks are expected to widen further as the first regional elections descend upon the region in 2025,” the report said.
CCAA said that before the 2025 polls, the deaths among vulnerable sectors including the non-Moro Indigenous peoples will increase, especially among women and children.
It added in its report that the internal armed struggles involving the MILF, Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), Dawlah Islamiyah (DI), and the Communist Party of the Philippines are also expected to intensify as they directly intervene in local and regional elections.
“The number of deaths from identity-related violence rose significantly to eclipse shadow economy and political violence at the end of 2023. By 2023, identity-related conflict became the major cause of death,” the report said.
Jaspearl Tan/DMS
