Pagasa announces onset of El Nino
By Robina Asido
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) announced on Tuesday, the onset of El Nino that will bring warm and dry air which will reduce the amount of rainfall towards the end of the year.
"The El Nino is there in the central equatorial pacific, the temperature of the ocean is really high but we do not yet feel its impact although we provide advance information for the early preparations, this time we are sure because the ocean is already hot. It means it will continue the El Nino is already there in the ocean," Pagasa Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan said in a press conference on Tuesday.
However, Pagasa Assistant Weather Service Chief Ana Liza Solis said due to the presence or "peak" of southwest monsoon only some areas in the country will experience below normal rainfall in the third quarter.
"El Nino is present in the tropical Pacific and will persist until the first quarter of 2024, showing signs of strengthening in the coming months, meaning we are still experiencing weak El Nino but there are models that there is a high probability of more than 56 percent that El Nino will be moderate to strong at least during the last quarter of this year," she said.
"During July, August, September, there are some areas that may have below normal rainfall. This means 21 to 60 percent is the possible reduction of rainfall in areas under yellow or below normal rainfall," she added.
Solis said the "potential effect" of El Nino which includes dry spell and meteorological drought or (or the yellow to red) is expected from October 2023 to January 2024.
"The areas under yellow and red will experience below to way below normal rainfall conditions, for yellow 21 to 60 percent there will be reduction of rainfall while for red there is more than 60 percent possible reduction of rainfall," she explained.
Solis said "by end of December 2023, around 36 provinces are potential for dry spell by end of December 2023 while two areas are potential for drought in Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte."
"The area of Dinagat Island, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Sorsogon these are potential for dry spell by the end of October so we see early manifestations including Agusan Del Norte. And then by the end of January 2024 so we extend for a month when around two provinces might experience dry spell: Cagayan, Cavite and in Visayas around six provinces and nine provinces in Mindanao have possible potential for dry spell," she said.
"Around 26 provinces in the Luzon area are in potential for meteorological drought by the end of January, these are based on the recent condition in the tropical pacific," she added.
Solis said 10 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the country in the second half of the year.
Cayanan stressed that during El Nino there is a high probability tropical cyclones that will form over the warm ocean are stronger than the usual storm.
"If the the temperature of the ocean is high there is a possibility that the storm that will be form there is much stronger but remember that the hot portion of the ocean is in the central equatorial pacific, if cyclone was formed there and it will really reached us we really have to prepare for it," she said. DMS
