OCTA Research says gov't may impose "soft MECQ" if after 2 weeks COVID-19 cases won't decline
The Philippine government may impose a "soft" modified enhanced community quarantine if cases of coronavirus disease will not drop during the two-week general community quarantine bubble in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, the OCTA Research group said on Wednesday.
OCTA Research fellow professor Ranjit Rye, in the "Laging Handa" public briefing, said the declaration of soft MECQ could be the "last resort" when current government interventions would not work.
"So, what we have proposed is for soft MECQ. It's MECQ where businesses are open. It's an MECQ where there is transportation. It's MECQ where daily wage earners can work," he said.
Under the soft MECQ, Rye said "significant portion" of the private and public sectors have to work from home.
"So that is what we are thinking about soft MECQ. And then border controls are extremely strict so there's no movement," he added.
The government is currently implementing a two-week GCQ bubble until April 4 in Metro Manila and in the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.
Under the bubble, residents could not travel to other provinces as their movements are only contained within the National Capital Region plus the four adjacent provinces. Only essential travels would be allowed in and out of the bubble.
Mass gatherings, including religious gatherings, are prohibited in those areas. These are among the government's measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 which hit over 8,000 cases in one day.
Rye said OCTA Research prefers to impose MECQ in places covered by the bubble if the government wants to bring down the number of cases to a manageable level amid the "worst surge in the country's history as far as fighting this COVID-19 virus is concerned."
"Maybe an MECQ of two weeks will really do. It will slow it down. For four weeks, it would really knock it out. We will knock it out," he said.
But Rye acknowledged that imposing a lockdown would cost much to the economy.
"That's why our suggestion is for soft MECQ so that the assistance that the government would be giving out is not huge," Rye said.
In the same public briefing, Guido David of OCTA Research, said based on their projection, it is more realistic to see the effect of the restrictions currently being enforced by the government after four weeks.
He recalled that last year, when most parts of the country were placed under MECQ, it took about four weeks or one month before a downward trend in COVID-19 cases was seen.
"It's possible that we could be in a downward trend in two weeks but realistically or it's more realistic around four weeks at least," he said.
David also said OCTA were seeing an upward trend in COVID-19 cases in Pampanga and Batangas provinces.
"For example in Batangas, their increase was almost 100 percent since they are outside the bubble. And it could be problematic if we contain the virus inside the bubble but it's spreading outside the bubble. So, I think we have to look into this,'' he said.
Rye also welcomed the plan of the government to concentrate first the COVID-19 vaccination in NCR where most cases could be found.
"In fact, OCTA was one of the first to suggest that because the virus epicenter is here," he said.
He also said that inoculation could be concentrated in Calabarzon, such as Rizal, and Bulacan.
He likened the pandemic to a snake where the head is in Metro Manila and in Calabrazon.
But he acknowledged that massive vaccination on the two regions could only take place if there is sufficient vaccine.
So far, only less than two million doses of vaccines have arrived in the country, including 400,000 doses of Sinovac, which China delivered on Wednesday. Healthcare workers have mostly been vaccinated.
"If we win the war in NCR, we think we win the battle against COVID in the country. That's what we see and it will require at least four million doses here, 4.5 million doses here in NCR to have that effect," Rye said.
He expressed hope that all sectors, such as civil society and the private sector, will cooperate to lower the COVID-19 cases in the country. Celerina Monte/DMS
